As the Sun approaches its next period of peak activity—the solar maximum between 2025 and 2035—scientists and engineers brace for a surge in solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These violent eruptions from our star have the potential to wreak havoc on Earth’s technological infrastructure, disrupting power grids, satellite communications, and even aviation systems. The last major solar storm, the Carrington Event of 1859, set telegraph wires ablaze with electrical surges. Today, with our planet deeply intertwined with fragile electronics, the stakes are far higher.
The Sun operates on an approximately 11-year cycle, oscillating between solar minimum (low activity) and solar maximum (high activity). During solar maximum, the Sun’s magnetic field becomes increasingly turbulent, leading to more sunspots, solar flares, and CMEs. The upcoming Cycle 25, peaking between 2025 and 2035, is expected to be stronger than the relatively mild Cycle 24 (2008-2019), though likely not as intense as historic cycles like the one that produced the Carrington Event.
A direct hit from a massive solar flare or CME could induce geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in power lines, overwhelm satellite electronics, and disrupt radio communications. Below are the most vulnerable systems:
High-voltage transformers are particularly susceptible to GICs. A prolonged geomagnetic storm could cause widespread blackouts, as seen during the 1989 Quebec blackout, when a solar storm knocked out power for nine hours. Modern grids are only marginally better protected.
Increased radiation from solar flares can degrade satellite components, corrupt signals, and even cause total failure. GPS accuracy could falter, affecting navigation for aviation, shipping, and military operations.
X-class flares ionize Earth’s upper atmosphere, causing high-frequency (HF) radio blackouts that can last hours. This impacts aviation, emergency services, and amateur radio operators.
While fiber-optic cables themselves are immune, their repeaters—which amplify signals—are vulnerable to geomagnetic disturbances. A major storm could disrupt global internet traffic.
The past offers sobering examples of what could happen again:
Governments and industries are taking steps to mitigate risks:
NASA’s Parker Solar Probe and ESA’s Solar Orbiter provide real-time data on solar activity. Early warning systems can give power grid operators time to take preventive measures.
Upgrading transformers with GIC-blocking devices and installing surge protectors can reduce vulnerability. Some nations are stockpiling spare transformers.
New satellites are being designed with radiation-hardened electronics. Operators may also place satellites in safe mode during extreme solar events.
A study by the National Academy of Sciences estimated that a Carrington-level event today could cause up to $2 trillion in damages in the first year alone, with recovery taking 4-10 years. The cascading effects—loss of refrigeration, communications blackouts, transportation disruptions—could paralyze modern society.
The next solar maximum is inevitable. Whether it brings minor disruptions or catastrophic failures depends on our readiness. Investment in resilient infrastructure, international cooperation on space weather monitoring, and public awareness campaigns are essential to weathering the coming storm.