The global demand for hydrogen in ammonia-based fertilizers is expected to rise significantly, driven by population growth, agricultural intensification, and the need for sustainable food production. Ammonia synthesis, which relies heavily on hydrogen as a feedstock, accounts for a substantial portion of global hydrogen consumption. As populations expand, particularly in regions with high agricultural output, the pressure to increase fertilizer production will escalate. However, the shift toward green ammonia and the emergence of biofertilizers as alternatives introduce complexities in modeling future demand.

Traditional ammonia production depends on hydrogen derived from steam methane reforming (SMR), a carbon-intensive process. The transition to low-carbon hydrogen, particularly through electrolysis powered by renewable energy, is gaining traction as countries implement stricter emissions regulations and pursue net-zero targets. Green ammonia, produced using renewable hydrogen, is positioned as a key solution for decarbonizing fertilizer supply chains. Several pilot projects and commercial-scale green ammonia plants are already operational or under development, signaling a shift in production methods.

Population-dense regions, such as South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, are critical drivers of demand due to their reliance on ammonia-based fertilizers to sustain crop yields. These regions face dual challenges: ensuring food security for growing populations while mitigating environmental impacts. The adoption of green ammonia in these areas depends on cost competitiveness, infrastructure readiness, and policy support. Currently, the higher production costs of green ammonia compared to conventional methods pose a barrier, though declining renewable energy prices and technological advancements are expected to narrow this gap.

Biofertilizers present a competing solution, particularly in markets where sustainability is prioritized over immediate yield maximization. Unlike synthetic ammonia, biofertilizers leverage organic processes to fix nitrogen, reducing reliance on hydrogen-derived products. However, their adoption is constrained by lower nutrient efficiency, slower release rates, and variable performance under different soil conditions. In regions with intensive farming practices, biofertilizers are unlikely to fully replace ammonia-based fertilizers but may complement them in integrated nutrient management systems.

Quantitative projections indicate that global ammonia demand could grow at an annual rate of 1.5% to 2.5% over the next decade, with hydrogen requirements scaling proportionally. Green ammonia is anticipated to capture an increasing share of production, potentially reaching 10% to 20% of total output by 2030, contingent on policy incentives and cost reductions in electrolyzer technologies. Regions with abundant renewable resources, such as the Middle East and Australia, are likely to emerge as exporters of green ammonia, supplying markets with limited domestic production capacity.

The interplay between hydrogen demand for ammonia and competing technologies will shape future market dynamics. While green ammonia adoption is poised to rise, its pace will hinge on economic viability, regulatory frameworks, and the ability to scale infrastructure. Biofertilizers, though not a direct substitute, will influence demand trends by diversifying nutrient supply options. In the long term, the convergence of these factors will determine the trajectory of hydrogen use in ammonia-based fertilizers, balancing agricultural needs with environmental sustainability.

A critical consideration is the infrastructure required to support green ammonia production and distribution. Existing ammonia synthesis plants are optimized for fossil-based hydrogen, necessitating retrofits or new facilities for green alternatives. Transportation and storage of green ammonia also present challenges, as the current supply chain is tailored to conventional production. Investments in logistics, such as ammonia cracking for hydrogen extraction and dedicated shipping routes, will be essential to facilitate widespread adoption.

Policy measures play a pivotal role in accelerating the transition. Subsidies for renewable hydrogen, carbon pricing mechanisms, and mandates for green ammonia use in fertilizers can drive market shifts. International collaborations, such as hydrogen trade agreements and technology transfer programs, will further enable diffusion into high-demand regions. The alignment of agricultural policies with climate goals will be crucial in ensuring that hydrogen demand for fertilizers aligns with broader sustainability objectives.

Technological innovations may also disrupt demand projections. Advances in nitrogen-fixing crops, precision agriculture, and alternative fertilization techniques could reduce reliance on ammonia over time. However, these solutions are unlikely to displace ammonia-based fertilizers entirely in the near term, given their proven efficacy and established supply chains.

In summary, hydrogen demand for ammonia-based fertilizers is set to grow, influenced by demographic trends, sustainability imperatives, and competing technologies. Green ammonia will gain prominence, though its adoption will vary by region based on economic and infrastructural factors. Biofertilizers will carve out a niche but remain secondary to synthetic ammonia in most agricultural systems. The evolution of this market will depend on the interplay of technology, policy, and infrastructure, with significant implications for global hydrogen consumption patterns.