Nuclear-assisted hydrogen production represents a promising pathway for large-scale, low-carbon hydrogen generation. This method leverages the thermal energy or electricity from nuclear reactors to power hydrogen production processes, primarily through high-temperature electrolysis or thermochemical water splitting. A detailed economic assessment reveals critical insights into its viability, cost structure, and competitiveness.

The capital costs of nuclear hydrogen systems are significant, driven by the high upfront investment required for nuclear reactors and hydrogen production infrastructure. Advanced reactor designs, such as high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs) or molten salt reactors (MSRs), are often considered due to their ability to deliver high-temperature heat efficiently. Estimates suggest that the capital expenditure for a nuclear hydrogen plant integrating HTGR technology ranges between 4,000 and 6,000 USD per kW of thermal capacity. Electrolysis or thermochemical units add another 1,000 to 2,000 USD per kW, depending on the scale and technology choice.

Operational costs are influenced by reactor efficiency, maintenance requirements, and feedstock expenses. Nuclear plants have relatively low fuel costs compared to fossil-based systems, with uranium contributing only 5 to 10 percent of the total operational expenditure. However, labor, safety protocols, and regulatory compliance add substantial ongoing costs. The levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) for nuclear-assisted production typically falls between 3 and 6 USD per kilogram, depending on reactor type, capacity factor, and production method. High-temperature electrolysis tends to be more efficient than alkaline or PEM electrolysis when coupled with nuclear heat, reducing electricity-related expenses. Thermochemical cycles, such as the sulfur-iodine process, offer further efficiency gains but require higher capital investments.

Competitiveness against other low-carbon hydrogen methods depends on regional energy prices, policy support, and technological maturity. Renewable electrolysis, powered by wind or solar, has seen dramatic cost reductions, with LCOH reaching 2.5 to 5 USD per kg in optimal locations. However, nuclear hydrogen benefits from higher capacity factors, often exceeding 90 percent, compared to the intermittent nature of renewables. This makes nuclear a more stable and scalable option for baseload hydrogen supply. Fossil-based methods with carbon capture, such as steam methane reforming with CCS, produce hydrogen at 1.5 to 3 USD per kg but face challenges related to carbon leakage and long-term storage viability.

Several factors influence the cost reduction potential of nuclear hydrogen. Reactor type plays a crucial role; modular small modular reactors (SMRs) could lower capital costs through factory fabrication and economies of scale. Co-generation, where nuclear plants supply both electricity and heat for industrial processes, improves overall economics by maximizing asset utilization. Additionally, advancements in high-temperature electrolysis and thermochemical cycles could further enhance efficiency, reducing the LCOH. Research into hybrid systems, combining nuclear heat with renewable electricity, may also unlock synergies.

Future cost projections for nuclear hydrogen vary under different market scenarios. In a high-adoption scenario with strong policy support and technological breakthroughs, LCOH could decline to 2 to 4 USD per kg by 2040. This assumes accelerated deployment of SMRs, improved electrolyzer efficiency, and streamlined regulatory approvals. A conservative scenario, with slower technology maturation and limited investment, may see costs remaining above 5 USD per kg. The availability of low-cost uranium and advancements in reactor longevity will also play pivotal roles.

Regional dynamics further shape the economic outlook. Countries with established nuclear infrastructure, such as France or the United States, may achieve faster cost reductions due to existing expertise and supply chains. Emerging markets might face higher initial costs but could benefit from international collaboration and turnkey solutions. The development of hydrogen trade corridors, leveraging nuclear-produced hydrogen for export, could also enhance economic viability.

In summary, nuclear-assisted hydrogen production presents a technically feasible and economically competitive option for low-carbon hydrogen. While capital costs remain high, operational efficiencies and co-generation benefits improve its value proposition. Cost reductions hinge on reactor innovation, scale-up, and integration with complementary technologies. Future competitiveness will depend on the pace of renewable cost declines, carbon pricing mechanisms, and policy frameworks favoring clean hydrogen. With strategic investments and technological progress, nuclear hydrogen could play a central role in the decarbonization of energy-intensive industries and long-distance transport sectors.